Sure Shot Commodity Tips

Crude oil futures are trading below $88 mark in Asia electronic trades Monday following solid gains of 1% on Friday amid new hopes for progress on a deal for Greece and following the release of encouraging data out of Germany.

Light sweet crude futures for delivery in January are trading down 30 cents at $ 87.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, it settled higher by 1% at $88.28 a barrel. On the week, it gained 1.3%, the third consecutive weekly advance.

Market sentiment improved after Greece’s Finance Minister said the International Monetary Fund had relaxed its debt-cutting target for the country, suggesting lenders were closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche to be paid. However, other sources involved in the talks cautioned that the funding gap was far bigger than Greece has suggested.

Investor confidence also strengthened after the German Institute for Economic Research earlier said that its index of business confidence improved to 101.4 in November from a reading of 100.0 the previous month, beating expectations for a decline to 99.5.

In the coming week, market participants will be focusing on Monday’s meeting of the euro group of finance ministers to discuss unlocking Greece’s next aid installment. Traders will also monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

MCX December crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 4900 levels with support around Rs 4870 and Rs 4830 levels.

Sure Shot Commodity Tips

The MCX Silver futures broke above Rs 61000 per kg levels today as a good amount of fresh buying helped the metal amid mostly positive movement in global risky assets. The US dollar slipped as US Congressional leaders met with President Barack Obama on Friday and said they would work to find common ground on taxes and spending. This boosted hopes that the world's largest economy would be successfully able to combat with the looming "fiscal cliff". Gains in other industrial commodities like Copper and Crude oil also boosted the metal. COMEX Silver futures are trading at $32.60, up 2.3 cents or 0.73% on the day.

Silver futures extended a downward run from its highs near $35 per ounce achieved in the first week of October 2012. LME Copper tested its two-month lows and kept Silver in tight ranges. Silver is linked directly to industrial activity and safe haven demand and a drop in copper is normally supposed to have a negative influence on the white metal. The commodity tested its two-month lows near $30 per ounce and closed at $32.37, up nearly 5% on the fortnight. The prices have been locked in a broad range of $30-35 per ounce over last few days and a break on the either side is needed for further direction.

Precious metals consultancy GFMS estimates that industrial demand for silver fell 6% in 2012, driven by weak economic growth in developed countries. Manufacturers continued to find ways to substitute cheaper raw materials in place of silver. Meanwhile, consumers have cut purchases of silverware and shifted away from costly precious metals in their jewelry purchases. The trend was partially offset by rising sales in emerging markets, particularly China, GFMS said. While the industrial demand dropped, silver mine supply rose for the 10th consecutive year in 2012, and is expected to total 797.0 million ounces, up 4.3% from 763.8 million ounces in 2011, according to the consultancy.

The white metal had neared $32.30 per ounce levels earlier in the session but edged up quite impressively thereafter, adding one full dollar during the day. The Asian equities added good gains following a near 1.5% surge in Japanese stocks while the European stocks are also up by nearly 1%. MCX Silver futures are trading at Rs 61038, up Rs 168 or 0.26% on the day. The open interest in the counter is up nearly 4% - indicating fresh buying.

MCX Natural Gas Tips

MCX Natural Gas futures are trading down in the early moves today, as the global prices linger in red, witnessing follow up selling after the correction in the last session. The US equity markets recorded a heavy sell off yesterday and pulled oil and metal counters in commodities along with it. The Dow dropped 300 points even as world stocks gained earlier in the day after Barack Obama won the second term of the US Presidency.
The Globex Natural gas futures for delivery in December failed to break above $3.60 levels for a second consecutive session and slipped in tune with US stocks and crude oil prices, which lost nearly 3%. The commodity now trades at US$ 3.550, down 2.8 cents per million British thermal units (mmbtu) or 0.78% on the day.

The US National Weather Service has noted in a recent update that a storm is expected to hit the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing cold weather to the region. Colder-than-normal winter temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to heat homes, leading to a surge in demand for natural gas. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for US gas consumption. Markets are eying further updates on the same.

The overall undertone is expected to be lax amid bearish undertone in Asian stocks and a rally in the US dollar. The US weekly inventories data is to be released later on today. Total US gas supplies stood at 3.908 trillion cubic feet, an all-time record that surpasses the previous peak of 3.852 trillion cubic feet reached last November. Stocks are 3.6% above a year ago and 7.1% above the five-year average for the week.

The Natural Gas prices topped out at a 10-month high of $3.85 per mmbtu in end October 2012. The prices had dropped to a low near $3.50 per mmbtu in first week of November and broke above $3.60 levels earlier in the week. Sentiments look weak given the sell off in equities as traders re assess the gains in risky assets after the Obama win. MCX Natural Gas futures are trading at Rs 194.20, down Rs 1 per mmbtu on the day or 0.51%

Sure Shot Commodity Tips

As per the latest updates from the Spices Board of India, the average prices of cardamom in the auction held at South Indian Green Cardamom Company Ltd, Kochi on Tuesday (as on 30th October 2012) stood at Rs 761.32 and maximum price was at Rs 888 per kg. The arrivals and offtakes stood at 22548 kg and 20541 kg respectively.
The average price in the previous auction was Rs 721.93 per kg, meanwhile arrivals and offtakes stood at 7027 kg and 4625 kg respectively.

Comex Gold Updates

COMEX Gold futures yet again slipped towards their one month lows of $1715 per ounce as the selling pressure stayed in place amid mixed undertone in global equities and strength in US dollar. The greenback is quoting in a positive manner after losing slightly yesterday and neared 1.3000 levels against the Euro yet again today. The currency had slipped after a local election in Spain saw Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's party holding on to power in his home region of Galicia. The greenback had neared 1.3100 levels before this news hit the streets. COMEX Gold futures for December are quoting at $1720.45, down $5.85 per ounce on the day.

Global markets shriveled yesterday on world economic worries. The Japanese exports tumbled by 10.3% in the year to September, recording a drop for fourth consecutive month. This was the biggest drop in the measure for nearly 18 months. This hurt the sentiments on worries that the global economy is extending its weak run and demand for copper might slow in near term.

Further, the German central bank stated that there are increasing signs that a perceptible expansion of economic growth in the third quarter of 2012 will be followed by stagnation or even a slight decrease in gross domestic product in the final quarter of the year. In the final quarter of 2012, the German growth is likely to slow substantially as economic weakness in a number of Eurozone countries puts the brakes on growth.

Gold has been hit hard in the last few days as highs near $1800 per ounce proved unsustainable and weak Chinese demand hurt the sentiments. Mainland Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong slowed dramatically in August. Hong Kong shipments of the metal to Mainland China for the month totaled 54 tons, a drop of 29% from the 76 tons shipped in July, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

COMEX Gold has dropped nearly 80 dollars in last two and half weeks and could witness some buying at the present levels. The local MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 30979, down Rs 89 per 10 grams on the day. Prices had dropped more than Rs 200 on the day yesterday. The counter has been witnessing a persistent rise in the open interest, which is up 4.64% on the day so far today.

Bullion & Base Metal Commodity News

Copper & Crude Oil too seem to have hit near term bottoms & could turn & rise. Fundamentally speaking, most commodities should be taking an upside swing from hereon. Copper Futures Trading volume has been below average so far in October & can be expected to pick up only from next week onward after the LME week is over by this weekend. Chinese imports of copper rose in September. Base Metal imports in September were already relatively strong and proved a positive surprise. Copper imports climbed by 11% from the prior month to 394,837 metric tons. In the first nine months of the year, China thus imported around 3.6 million tons of copper products, 32.6% more than in the same period last year. China’s iron ore shipments rose 4.1% in September to 65.01 million tons, the highest level since January 2011. Fears in the Base Metals complex about Chinese economic growth may be heavily exaggerated. China is a key consumer of industrial commodities & the demand will rise as it develops its infrastructure further. Since inflation dropped year-on-year to just 1.9% at the same time, reaching its second-lowest figure since January 2010, the government and central bank have more scope to launch new stimulus measures. A growing number of copper traders lately appear to be selling into rallies rather than buying on dips, as worries about the macroeconomic picture upset the bulls. Base Metals have reversed almost all gains seen after the announcement of the Fed’s QE3. An upside pace in Agro commodities seen for the past few days if joined by Base Metals & Crude Oil may trigger fresh up moves in Gold & Silver also. The relative out performance of Copper makes it our favored metal & top pick for fresh bullish moves & this in turn will provide for the much needed push in Silver also. The International Copper Study Group also shows a seasonally adjusted year-to-date supply deficit of nearly 300,000 metric tons. Overall the picture remains hazy & generally directionless until the crucial US Presidential Elections. Things seem to be taken care of conveniently, so that nothing major, Rocks the Boat…

Commodity tips updates

International Gold was little changed on Friday after gaining in the previous session when the dollar eased from a one-month high, although it remained on target for its biggest weekly drop in two months. Gold has been fluctuating between $1,760 and $1,780 so far this week, with no fresh catalysts to drive it from that range, after stimulus measures by central banks pushed prices near $1,800 earlier this month. The COMEX December gold was trading nearly flat at $1,769.80 an ounce, 0.8 an ounce, after moving in the range $ 1772.7- 1768 an ounce.

Indian rupee weakens with quoting at Rs 52.86, 0.35% drop in the value against the greenback. MCX Gold December is quoting at Rs 31385, up 0.20% from the last close. Support for the counter is at Rs 31300-31210 and resistance is at around Rs 31450-31520 level.

Silver December contact is trading at $ 33.915, down 0.167 per ounce. Silver on MCX is quoting at Rs 61624, down 0.31% from the last close. Resistance is seen at Rs 61800-61950 and supports at Rs 61500-61300 level.gold